Executive Summary
The natural rubber market experienced significant volatility in H1 2025, with prices declining approximately 7% in Q1 and continuing downward pressure through Q2. As we enter the second half of 2025, global rubber supply is transitioning from growth season to peak production period, while demand remains constrained by economic uncertainties. This analysis examines the implications for household latex glove manufacturers and B2B buyers.
H1 2025 Market Review
The first half of 2025 witnessed a clear downward trend in natural rubber prices despite intermittent rebounds. Key factors included:
- Q1 Performance: High inventory levels during Chinese New Year coincided with peak production in major producing regions, creating a 7% price correction
- Q2 Dynamics: Trade policy concerns and geopolitical tensions accelerated the decline, with prices hitting new lows post-Dragon Boat Festival as Southeast Asian production surged
- Supply Surge: China’s rubber imports increased 23.5% year-on-year in the first five months, reaching 3.476 million tons
H2 2025 Supply-Demand Outlook
Supply Side: Expanding Production Pressure
According to ANRPC’s latest forecast, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons in 2025. Key regional dynamics include:
- Thailand: +1.2% growth with improved tapping conditions
- Indonesia: -9.8% decline due to weather disruptions
- China: +6% domestic production increase
- Vietnam & Malaysia: Facing production challenges with -1.3% and -4.2% respectively
The transition to peak production season in H2 2025, combined with favorable weather conditions and attractive rubber prices motivating farmer participation, suggests sustained supply pressure through Q3.
Demand Side: Mixed Signals
Global rubber consumption is projected to grow by only 1.3% to 15.565 million tons in 2025, down from earlier forecasts. Critical demand factors include:
- Tire Industry: Chinese tire production grew only 2.8% YoY in Jan-May 2025, significantly below the 9.5% growth rate of the previous year
- Export Dynamics: While tire exports increased 7.3% in the first five months, future orders face uncertainty from trade tensions
- Automotive Sector: Domestic Chinese auto sales remain robust (+10.9% YoY), but global markets show divergence with European sales declining 0.6%
Price Projection for H2 2025
Based on comprehensive analysis of supply-demand fundamentals and macroeconomic factors, we anticipate:
Q3 2025 Outlook
- Continued Weakness: Supply surplus conditions likely to persist
- Price Range: Natural rubber prices may test new lows, potentially declining 5-10% from current levels
- Support Factors: Limited by seasonal demand uptick and potential weather disruptions
Q4 2025 Forecast
- Stabilization Expected: Traditional “Golden September-Silver October” peak season may provide floor
- Recovery Potential: Limited upside due to persistent oversupply
- Price Target: Stabilization around current levels with modest 3-5% recovery potential
Impact on Household Latex Glove Pricing
Cost Structure Analysis
For a typical 60g household latex glove with 60% latex content:
- Raw Material Component: 36g of latex per glove
- Cost Share: Latex typically represents 40-45% of total production cost
- Price Sensitivity: A 10% change in rubber prices translates to approximately 4-4.5% change in glove production costs
H2 2025 Glove Market Implications
Given the projected rubber price trajectory:
- Q3 Production Costs: Expected to decrease by 2-4% as rubber prices weaken
- Market Dynamics:
- Manufacturers may maintain current pricing to improve margins
- Competitive pressure could force selective price reductions
- Long-term contracts likely to remain stable
- Strategic Recommendations for B2B Buyers:
- Short-term: Consider negotiating Q4 contracts during Q3 price weakness
- Inventory Strategy: Moderate stock levels given declining cost trend
- Contract Terms: Push for quarterly price reviews to capture potential savings
Risk Factors and Considerations
Upside Risks to Rubber Prices:
- Extreme weather events in Southeast Asia
- Sudden surge in automotive demand
- Oil price spikes affecting synthetic rubber substitution
Downside Risks:
- Further global economic deterioration
- Implementation of zero-tariff agreements (Thailand-China negotiations)
- Continued inventory buildup
Conclusion
The household latex glove market in H2 2025 will benefit from favorable raw material cost trends, with rubber prices expected to remain under pressure through Q3 before stabilizing in Q4. While immediate price increases appear unlikely, manufacturers like Guangzhou Red Sunshine are well-positioned to offer competitive pricing while maintaining quality standards.
B2B buyers should leverage this period of cost stability to secure favorable long-term contracts, while remaining flexible enough to capture potential cost savings as rubber prices adjust. The combination of adequate supply, manageable demand, and stable production costs creates an optimal environment for strategic procurement and partnership development in the household glove sector.
Contact Guangzhou Red Sunshine Co., Ltd. for customized pricing strategies and volume agreements tailored to your H2 2025 requirements.
